Covid-19 A Once in a Century Fiasco in the Making

Back in March at the beginning of the COVID 19 outbreak, the highly respected Stanford Epidemiologist John Ioannidis drew heavy criticism for expressing his view that governments were making decisions without reliable data. On March 17, 2020, Dr. John Ioannidis writes:

“The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.“(1)

The Data Has Accumulated and Dr. John Ioannidis was RIGHT !!

Infection Fatality Rate of ZERO for under 45 yrs of age !!

In a recent interview June 27, 2020, Dr Ioannidis spells out the accumulated data which is now available. Sadly, he was right all along. Regarding the infection fatality rate, remarkably, Dr John Ioannidis says for people younger than age 45, the infection fatality rate is ZERO !!! And, for people age 45 to 70, the infection fatality rate is probably about 0.05-0.3%, historically similar to other seasonal respiratory viruses. However, fatality rate for frail nursing home patients may be as high as 25%.

What is the IFR (infection fatality rate) ? Dr. Ioannidis replies:

“0.05% to 1% is a reasonable range for what the data tell us now for the infection fatality rate, with a median of about 0.25%. The death rate in a given country depends a lot on the age-structure, who are the people infected, and how they are managed. For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05-0.3%. For those above 70, it escalates substantially, to 1% or higher for those over 85. For frail, debilitated elderly people with multiple health problems who are infected in nursing homes, it can go up to 25% during major outbreaks in these facilities.”

Draconian Lockdown Consequences: “Financial Crisis, Unrest, and Civil Strife.”

When recently asked about the consequences of the Lockdowns, Dr Ioaninidis said he was saddened that his projections were verified: Dr. Ioannidis replies:

“I feel extremely sad that my predictions were verified. “Major consequences on the economy, society and mental health” have already occurred. I hope they are reversible, and this depends to a large extent on whether we can avoid prolonging the draconian lockdowns and manage to deal with COVID-19 in a smart, precision-risk targeted approach, rather than blindly shutting down everything. Similarly, we have already started to see the consequences of “financial crisis, unrest, and civil strife.” I hope it is not followed by “war and meltdown of the social fabric.”

Draconian Lockdowns put 1.1 Billion at Risk of Starvation

Dr. Ioannidis replies:

“Globally, the lockdown measures have increased the number of people at risk of starvation to 1.1 billion, and they are putting at risk millions of lives, with the potential resurgence of tuberculosis, childhood diseases …, and malaria. I hope that policymakers look at the big picture of all the potential problems and not only on the very important, but relatively thin slice of evidence that is COVID-19.”

We now live in a polarized society of two types of people. On one hand we have people obediently watching the nightly news who believe what they hear and see on the television. These people are fearful of viruses and want government protection with “security measures” that coincidentally abolish constitutional rights and liberties. For example, the right to work and make a living, and the right to assemble in a house of worship are among many that have been abolished. These “fearful” people are not concerned about the economic consequences of 40 million people collecting unemployment payments. Or the soon to be millions living out of cardboard boxes on the sidewalk because they can not pay their rent.

Celebrating Freedom on Independence Day

On the other hand, there are people who understand the views of Dr Ioannidis, who are not fearful, and who do not watch the nightly news. These people do not want government protection from a virus. These people want the government to stop interfering in their right to work and make a living to support their families. They want to have their constitutional rights and liberties restored. That is what we are celebrating on July 4th Independence Day.

Latest Data Chart From Covid Tracking Project

While “cases” are increasing (Blue Arrow), deaths are decreasing (Red Arrow).

Conclusion: Our country is teetering on a precipice. Are we sheep to be ruled by fear ? Or are we brave men and women standing up for freedom, liberty and the American way? If we are worried about the mortality rate from a virus, just think about this: What is the mortality rate from living out of a cardboard box on the sidewalk?

References

1) A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data. By John P.A. Ioannidis March 17, 2020 once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.

2) Up to 300 Million People May Be Infected by Covid-19, Stanford Guru John Ioannidis Says. By Patricia Claus – Jun 27, 2020

Dr. Ioannidis: 0.05% to 1% is a reasonable range for what the data tell us now for the infection fatality rate, with a median of about 0.25%. The death rate in a given country depends a lot on the age-structure, who are the people infected, and how they are managed. For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05-0.3%. For those above 70, it escalates substantially, to 1% or higher for those over 85. For frail, debilitated elderly people with multiple health problems who are infected in nursing homes, it can go up to 25% during major outbreaks in these facilities.
Dr. Ioannidis: I feel extremely sad that my predictions were verified. “Major consequences on the economy, society and mental health” have already occurred. I hope they are reversible, and this depends to a large extent on whether we can avoid prolonging the draconian lockdowns and manage to deal with COVID-19 in a smart, precision-risk targeted approach, rather than blindly shutting down everything. Similarly, we have already started to see the consequences of “financial crisis, unrest, and civil strife.” I hope it is not followed by “war and meltdown of the social fabric.”
Globally, the lockdown measures have increased the number of people at risk of starvation to 1.1 billion, and they are putting at risk millions of lives, with the potential resurgence of tuberculosis, childhood diseases like measles where vaccination programs are disrupted, and malaria. I hope that policymakers look at the big picture of all the potential problems and not only on the very important, but relatively thin slice of evidence that is COVID-19.

3) Stanford’s John P.A. Ioannidis — co-director of the university’s Meta-Research Innovation Center and professor of medicine
response to the coronavirus pandemic may be “a fiasco in the making” because we are making seismic decisions based on “utterly unreliable” data. The data we do have, Ioannidis explains, indicates that we are likely severely overreacting.
“The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco,”

4) Ioannidis, John. “The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data.” medRxiv (2020).